Leadership Against the Storm of Uncertainty

LEADERSHIP that is effective in uncertain times is equally effective in times of relative stability. The opposite, however, is not true. There are many actions taken by leaders in routine circumstances that give the leader power and influence, yet such behaviors may not work well when uncertainty dominates. Why? When things are going well, and not stirred by uncertainty or crisis, people are willing to put up with all sorts of poor leadership, often obeying leaders whether they trust them or not. Yet in uncertainty, trust becomes essential for influence. That’s when trust in the leader must be earned, rather than assumed. Against the Storm: How True Leaders Prevail When the World Shakes, holds more than a dozen practical techniques to build trust in uncertainty. Here are two:

1. Leader Meeting Control

All leaders host meetings. One type of meeting that is common, yet difficult, is the “town hall” meeting—meetings of 50-200 people with open questioning to the leader. Town halls are quite useful for academic, political, and business leaders. In those circumstances, the best leaders find ways to control dialogue. Uncontrolled dialogue in open meetings is a recipe for disaster—as many politicians have found out, having lost the ability to control their meetings and having been advised by their political leadership to stop having them.

Such meetings allow people with specific agendas—some well-meaning, some not—to take over the direction and purpose of the meeting. Competent leaders always put rules or procedures in place that give them some control over the dialogue. Such control has to be done thoughtfully and carefully, so as not to give followers the impression that the meeting is somehow rigged. Town hall meetings are not effective unless all participants can be heard.

One of the best ways to control dialogue in a meeting, yet all be heard, is what we call “card stack.” To card stack a meeting, give each participant a blank card, 3x5 or 6x8. To begin, ask them to write on one side something that the organization (or you the leader) is doing well. On the opposite side of the card, ask them to write something that the organization (or you the leader) is not doing well. Give them about 3 minutes, then collect up their answers to form a card stack. You now have tremendous power in your hand.

The card stack is a visible indication that everyone has been able to provide input. Once stacked, the leader may then start reading the cards, one at a time. The leader should not automatically read both the front and back of a card. Start by reading two or three positive comments, then select a negative comment to respond to. Holding the card stack, the leader has the opportunity to balance out the positive and negative, and should read more positive comments than negative ones. Control the tone.

Often in crisis or uncertainty, negativity emerges in the meetings. In some cases, it’s simply warranted because of threatening outcomes. In other cases, individuals may have their own agenda in being negative, and they may be persistently so. In such instances, the card stack is a terrific aid. The leader can address the negative issue to the right degree, then point out that the card stack is large and that the group can’t focus too long on one single issue—an issue that could also be dealt with at a later time in a different context.

The card stack represents a responsibility by the leader to respond to the written comments. If an issue has been written into the card stack, those who wrote it know that the leader knows. If the leader is viewed as responding over time, it’s a hugely positive perception. It’s a huge liability, though, if people know that the leader is informed of issues that are not dealt with. It will result in less feedback and honesty, less confidence that the leader is effective, and less trust. The strength in results that could be either positive or negative is an indication of the power of this technique.

2. Leader Pre-Mortems

In uncertain times, leaders have to anticipate catastrophic problems. The people who say, after a catastrophe, “I knew this was going to happen,” need to be uncovered and share their input BEFORE the crisis. It’s up to leaders to make that happen. The most proven technique for this outcome is called a Pre-Mortem.

The method of conducting a Pre-Mortem is as follows:

1. Assemble a group of knowledgeable employees representing all levels of the organization, a minimum of 8 people.
2. Explain that the purpose is to collect a series of catastrophic predictions, literal or imaginary.
3. Guarantee anonymity. Give each person a sheet of paper and a pen—nothing digital.
4. Ask the individuals to imagine a major fiasco affecting the organization, and to explain the failure.
5. Remind them of their anonymity. Give them limited time to write, say, five minutes, then collect the papers.
6. At this point, begin reading the most interesting fiascos aloud, creating group discussions about threats to the organization. Some of the issues may be too sensitive to work on as a group, so those may be skipped—but understand that someone knows that you as the leader have seen what they have described.

Pre-mortems have other advantages. Research reveals that review of imaginary or potential fiascos improves a leader’s intuition. The higher the leader, the more important experience and intuition is, rather than structured analysis. In uncertainty, the value of leader intuition skyrockets—at times being the only basis for decision-making. Pre-mortems improve that process.

The conditions of uncertainty that leaders currently face are record-breaking and mind-blowing. Leaders must not passively accept such conditions, but actively work for understanding, predictability, and trust. The need is for actions, not ideas. Find practical ways to lead in uncertainty—and just do it!

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Tom Kolditz has more than 35 years in leadership positions and received the Distinguished Service Medal, the US Army’s highest award for service. His first book, In Extremis Leadership: Leading as if Your Life Depended On It, puts forth an original crisis leadership model. He holds a PhD in psychology from the University of Missouri and an honorary PhD from the Chicago School of Professional Psychology. For more information, please visit tomkolditz.com/

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Posted by Michael McKinney at 08:40 AM
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